Links and Research for the Mock Trading

I'm assigned both GDP and BOP Analysis. First time of hearing BOP so I have to study and apply it.


actual data and indicators, news and report
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/philippines/indicators
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/philippines/news
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/philippines/report

other key stats
http://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/statistics_key.asp


balance of Payment analysis for monetary and fiscal policy
http://www.continentaleconomics.com/files/Mueller.BalanceofPaymentsAnalysis.2011.pdf
http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/content/pdfs/L-9.pdf
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2002/02-51.pdf

GDP Resources -basic concepts
http://www.investopedia.com/university/releases/gdp.asp#axzz2JXt7ARuz
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp#axzz2JXt7ARuz


Better Method to use? -GDP
https://www.google.com.ph/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&ved=0CEwQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fciteseerx.ist.psu.edu%2Fviewdoc%2Fdownload%3Fdoi%3D10.1.1.202.9191%26rep%3Drep1%26type%3Dpdf&ei=8VkKUdulEKqviQexkoGgDA&usg=AFQjCNHkkzuJg2LGIuEatg9o44agwwWohA&bvm=bv.41642243,d.aGc


"Our main conclusion is that in general linear time series models (ARFC14, which imposes a unit root in a model with constant and 4 lags )can be hardly beaten if they are carefully specified, and therefore still provide a good benchmark for theoretical models of growth and inflation. 
"However, we have also identified some important cases where the adoption of a more complicated benchmark can alter the conclusions of economic analyses about the driving forces of GDP growth and inflation. Therefore, comparing theoretical models also with more sophisticated time series benchmarks can guarantee more robust conclusions."

http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/hhsrbnkwp/0099.htm
-age structure information

http://repec.rwi-essen.de/files/REP_10_177.pdf
"the current practice of performing medium-term economic projections is unsatisfactory from a methodological point of view as the applied methodology has been developed for short-run forecasting and it is questionable whether these methods are useful for the medium term. In particular, currently medium-term projections are mostly based on the neoclassical Solow growth model with an aggregate production function with labour, capital, and exogenous technological progress. It might be argued, however, that for medium-run projections endogenous growth models might be better suited."


"In particular, the five-year projections of real GDP growth, inflation and the unemployment rate are investigated. Finally, we describe some approaches to improve medium-run projections"

"Solow (2000) mentions the transition from fixed to flexible prices."

http://homepage.univie.ac.at/robert.kunst/070107_efc.pdf
- model free forecast
- Model- Based Univariate (ARMA) <= best method by most institutions.
- Model - Based Multivariate (VAR)

Bottomline: I got the data. I can use ARMA or AR for forecasting GDP and I'm still learning BOP.